Do you understand how a bicycle works? For example, could you do a simple drawing of a bicycle?
This was the subject of a clever paper by University of Liverpool psychologist Dr Rebecca Lawson. Most people probably think they know how a bicycle works, but Dr Lawson actually found people ‘made frequent mistakes when asked to draw a bicycle, such as believing the chain went around the front wheel as well as the back wheel’. Most people’s understanding of this ‘familiar, everyday object is sketchy and shallow’, she concluded, with many people having ‘virtually no knowledge of how bicycles function’.
Similar studies have come to similar conclusions. For example, in a separate study, people were asked to rate their understanding of mundane things like a toilet, a zip, a sewing machine, a watch, and so on.
It turns out us humans are an overconfident bunch – almost everyone thought they had a good understanding of how ordinary things function, but most people were hopeless when it came to explaining how they worked.
People, the researchers concluded, feel they understand things ‘with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do’.
Or, as one participant commented in the Lawson experiment, ‘I think I know less than I thought’.
Countless other studies have documented that people are overconfident and are inclined to believe that we are more knowledgeable than we really are. This has been well documented in all kinds of areas, including decision-making, risk assessment, and self-appraisal.
The so-called overconfidence effect is a well-established cognitive bias, and one that is not easy to tame. The late psychologist Daniel Kahneman, author of the bestselling book Thinking, Fast and Slow, spent a lifetime studying overconfidence. Even after all his study, he confessed that he too was ‘very over-confident’. Overconfidence, he said, ‘is built so deeply into the structure of the mind that you couldn’t change it without changing many other things’.
HUMILITY
Still, while we may not be able to eliminate it, we can become a little bit less over-confident by choosing to cultivate an attitude of humility. ‘The more I know, the more I realise I know nothing’, as the great Greek philosopher Socrates said many moons ago.
Socrates was surely exaggerating when he said he knew nothing, but it’s notable that the wisest people choose to wear their beliefs lightly, as opposed to dogmatically insisting that they are right. In his book Superforecasters, psychology professor and political science expert Philip Tetlock says the most accurate forecasters see beliefs as ‘hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded’. Instead of being wedded to their beliefs, they are flexible and scientific about them, changing their mind as new evidence becomes available.
As it happens, this is a very CBT (cognitive behavioural therapy) approach. CBT encourages us to examine the evidence for and against our negative thoughts and beliefs.
Now, when you think of over-confidence, you might think of someone who thinks the world of themselves. However, overconfidence shows up in all kinds of areas – a depressed person who insists that s/he is useless and that things will never change; someone with low self-esteem who doesn’t apply for a job because they are sure they would mess up the interview; a socially anxious person who is sure they others will judge them negatively unless they over-prepare and rehearses conversations; and so on.
I’ll repeat the core point here: hold your beliefs lightly. By not over-identifying with specific beliefs, you are less likely to fall into cognitive distortions such as all-or-nothing thinking or catastrophising.
Clinging tightly to beliefs can lead to cognitive rigidity, which often exacerbates stress and anxiety when those beliefs are challenged. In contrast, holding beliefs lightly fosters mental flexibility, making it easier to adapt to changing circumstances, thus promoting resilience and reducing feelings of helplessness.
Similarly, accepting the limits of one’s knowledge – and being okay with not having all the answers – alleviates the pressure of perfectionism, thus reducing feelings of inadequacy and fostering self-compassion.
Like understanding how a bicycle really works, a deeper understanding of life requires a fair degree of humility, openness and curiosity, and a willingness to question our assumptions and beliefs.
(First published in Southern Star on 9/10/2025)